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## Probability Theory

2018-2019

### Course Objective

The learning objectives are as follows:

1. Knowledge and understanding of basic concepts of probability theory
and probability distributions.
2. Selecting an appropriate method to solve typical problems in
probability theory and applying these methods correctly.
3. Translating verbally described problems in the language of
probability theory to solve the problem.
4. Knowledge of probability distributions which occur most commonly in
practice and being able to use the known properties of these
distributions to solve problems.

### Course Content

The mathematical foundation for both modeling decisions under
uncertainty when performing statistics is the probability and the
probability therefore has a central role in the bachelor Econometrics
and Operations Research.
The structure of this course is as follows.
• Basic elements of the probability account
(random experiment, outcomes space, eventuality and opportunity) and
fundamental calculation rules for opportunities on eventualities.
Combinatorial probability models, conditional probabilities, the rule of
Bayes, and the law of total probability.
• Introduction of the concept of a stochastic variable, and
concepts such as distribution function, probability function,
expectation and
variance of a stochastic variable.
• Specific discrete probability distributions, such as the
binomial, hypergeometric, Poisson, and geometric distribution.
• Continuous stochastic variables and associated probability
distributions. Specific continuous probability distributions
such as the uniform, normal, exponential and gamma distribution.
Relations between these continuous probability distributions and the
previously introduced discrete probability distributions are discussed.
• If there is sufficient time at the end of the course, the
concepts of bivariate and multivariate probability distribution included
related concepts such as joint and marginal distribution functions,
conditional probability distribution and independence of stochastic
variables.

### Teaching Methods

Theory lecture 2 times 2 hours per week. Tutorial 1 times 2 hours per
week.

### Method of Assessment

Interbetween exam - individual mark
Final exam - individual mark
Individual assignment - individual mark

### Literature

Author: Saeed Ghahramani; Titel: Fundamentals of Probability (with
stochastic processes); Third Edition; publication year: 2016;
publisher: CRC Press, Taylor&Francis Group; ISBN: 9781498755016.

During this course some knowledge gained at the simultaneous course
Analysis I will be uitilized.

### Recommended background knowledge

Good knowledge and skill of mathematics taught at VWO.

### General Information

Course Code E_EOR1_PT 6 EC P1+2 100 English School of Business and Economics dr. D.A. van der Laan dr. D.A. van der Laan dr. D.A. van der Laan prof. dr. B.F. Heidergott

### Practical Information

You need to register for this course yourself

Teaching Methods Study Group, Lecture
Target audiences

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